The Odds of Winning the Lottery

Making decisions and determining fates by casting lots has a long record in human history. Lotteries that award money, however, are more recent, originating in the Low Countries in the 15th century to raise funds for town fortifications and help the poor.

State-sponsored lotteries grew during the post-World War II period, when states needed extra revenue to expand social safety nets without imposing too onerous taxes on middle and working classes. They also were hailed as a painless form of taxation, an advantage they have not lost in today’s economic climate.

Many people who play the lottery do so with a clear-eyed understanding of its odds and how they work. They buy a ticket and pick a group of numbers, or have machines randomly spit out numbers, and win prizes if enough of their numbers match those that are drawn.

A key aspect of these odds is the number field size—the lesser the number field, the better the odds. Another factor is the pick size, which refers to how many different combinations of numbers are available to choose from.

The bottom quintile of Americans do not have enough discretionary income to play the lottery. But the 21st through 60th percentiles play a disproportionate amount. Lottery commissions have been careful to emphasize the entertainment value of the experience and to frame purchasing a ticket as an activity that does not require much commitment, or even financial planning. These messages obscure the regressive nature of lottery playing and may encourage people to purchase tickets based on false beliefs about their odds of winning.